Risk of Contagion: Will Russian “Mayhem” Campaigns Spread to U.S. INfrastructure?

European allies have long recognized the disruptive nature of Russia’s grey zone operations and hybrid activities, but recent months have underscored Moscow’s growing willingness to take risks.

A new paper “Risk of Contagion” by Keir Giles, published today by the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress in Washington D.C., provides urgent insight into the scope and persistence of these non-conventional, but far from non-kinetic, operations. His analysis highlights the broad array of tools Russia employs to pursue its political objectives in Europe and how they could translate to the pursuit of similar objectives in the United States, underscoring the need for policymakers in Washington to build effective countermeasures and rethink strategic risk tolerance.

The analysis cautions that neither a U.S.–Russia rapprochement nor a resolution to the war in Ukraine is likely to alter Moscow’s reliance on these low-cost, high-impact measures. Should such threshold activities extend to American shores, Washington cannot claim surprise. Even if not directly affected, developing a deeper understanding of these tactics will enable the United States to better support its NATO allies.

publication details

• Authors:

  Keir Giles

• Publication date:

  April 2025

• Pages:

  44