Friday News Roundup - October 27, 2023
This has been a historic week in Washington, D.C., with Republicans settling on a new House Speaker after a nearly unprecedented three weeks of infighting that left Congress paralyzed. In “A Most Unlikely House Speaker,” CSPC Senior Fellow James Kitfield writes about what the election of relatively unknown Mike Johnson, R-LA, portends for the weeks and months ahead.
In “Li Keqiang’s Legacy” CSPC Senior Vice President Dan Mahaffee analyzes the sudden death of former Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, noting that it marks the passing of an era of more pragmatic leadership. As Mahaffee notes, Li was a leader focused more on economic development over current leader Xi Jinping’s strident nationalism. Xi cannot rule forever, however, and Mahaffee makes a convincing argument that U.S. officials should at least remain open to the possibility that a leader in the more pragmatic mold of Li could once again take the reins of leadership in Beijing.
In “China’s Shipbuilding Industry Far Surpasses U.S. Counterpart,” CSPC’s Kory Yueh reports on a newly leaked classified U.S. Navy briefing that notes a huge disparity in the shipbuilding capacity of China and the United States. According to the briefing, China’s shipbuilding industry outmatches its American counterpart in terms of tonnage by more than two hundred times. As Yueh makes clear, the report has profound implications for the Navy’s posture in the Indo-Pacific.
In “Opposition Wins Polish Election in Victory for European Democracy,” CSPC’s Julian Mancillas analyzes how the recent Polish election is widely viewed in Europe as a watershed event likely to shift Poland in a more liberal, democratic and pro-European Union direction. Importantly, the election begins to reverse a worrying increase in the number of right-wing, populist parties on the rise throughout Europe.
In “News You Might Have Missed,” CSPC looks at China’s recent meddling in upcoming Taiwanese elections; reports on the rapid growth in China’s fighter jet fleet and its launch of the first Chinese nuclear-powered guided missile submarines; California Governor Gavin Newsom’s recent visit to Beijing to talk climate-change cooperation; and Turkish President Erdogan’s recent insistence that despite all evidence, Hamas is not a terrorist organization but rather a liberation movement, a stance widely rejected by its NATO allies.
A Most Unlikely House Speaker
By James Kitfield
“Let the enemies of freedom around the world hear us loud and clear: The People’s House is back in business,” newly elected Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) declared this week in a rousing speech, finally putting an end to a nearly unprecedented three-weeks of Congressional paralysis and dysfunction as a fractious Republican caucus repeatedly failed to back a new leader. Three previous candidates had tried and failed to unite Republican moderates and hard-right populists before the mild-mannered and little known Louisiana lawmaker was elected unanimously by an exhausted Republican caucus.
Almost immediately after Johnson hoisted the Speaker’s gavel, the House overwhelmingly passed a resolution expressing solidarity with Israel in its war with the terrorist group Hamas. In a conciliatory statement congratulating Johnson, President Joe Biden noted that “even though we have real disagreements on important issues, there should be a mutual effort to find common ground wherever we can,” including on a fast approaching deadline to continue funding the federal government before a looming shutdown in roughly three weeks.
Indeed, with multiple crises on the near horizon, it seems unlikely that Speaker Johnson will enjoy much of a honeymoon in his new position. It was an earlier stopgap spending measure to prevent a government shutdown negotiated by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-CA, and opposed by Republican hardliners, that ended his speakership. Next up on a crowded crisis agenda is Biden’s recent request for nearly $106 billion for aid to democratic allies Israel and Ukraine in their existential fights for survival.
Tellingly, Speaker Johnson voted against that earlier stopgap spending measure to avoid a shutdown, and in the past he has voted against most bills to support Ukraine’s fight against Russian aggression. He is also the least experienced and most junior lawmaker to ascend to the Speakership in many decades, and arguably the most conservative.
Johnson was also a key architect of former President Donald Trump’s bid to have Congress reject certification of Biden’s election victory on January 6, 2021, and he played a leading role in recruiting House Republicans to sign a legal brief supporting a lawsuit to overturn the 2020 election results. It’s thus difficult not to see his ascendancy as a victory for the corrosive election denialism that has so infected the Republican Party. That’s an extremely troublesome backstory for an official now second in line to the presidency.
Yet American history is replete with examples of leaders who were impacted by the awesome weight and institutional responsibility of the offices they assumed, and who grew into those jobs. Shortly after he was elected, Speaker Johnson proclaimed that “the challenge before us is great, but the time for action is now. And I will not let you down.”
Much now depends on the sincerity of those lofty words, and the character of this most unlikely of House Speakers.
James Kitfield is a Senior Fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress
Li Keqiang’s Legacy
By Dan Mahaffee
Li Keqiang (right) with Xi Jinping in 2011 (Voice of America)
In Chinese politics, the sudden death of former Premier Li Keqiang, at 68, may very well mark the passing of an era. Largely sidelined in his premiership by Xi Jinping and the last of the relative pragmatists of the Hu Jintao “clique,” Li died of a sudden heart attack despite what official media described as extensive life saving efforts. With his death coming as Xi has removed others from his cabinet, rumors and conspiracy theories will abound.
Despite that background noise, mourning Li may become politically fraught. In the coming days it will be interesting to see how he is officially memorialized while also tracking the information controls and crackdown on any unofficial mourning. Thus far there has been only terse statements about his passing, suggesting that the Party mouthpieces are unsure about how to frame his legacy vis-à-vis current Chinese politics.
At a time when many Chinese feel that a golden era of economic opportunity and global engagement is coming to an end under Xi—and I highly recommend Evan Osnos’s New Yorker piece on the shift in China’s political economy—Li was always a leader focused on economic development and wellbeing over politics and national security. His “Li Keqiang Index” combined railway cargo volume, electricity consumption, and bank loans to provide a metric separate from the official statistics that he openly distrusted. In today’s China, openly distrusting the official statistics would bring charges of disloyalty. To openly admit this to U.S. officials, as Li did, would now be considered treasonous. When zero-Covid policies were strangling the Chinese economy and people, Li spoke up. When Hu Jintao underwent the modern equivalent of political defenestration, it was only Li who deftly acknowledged his political mentor as he was removed.
Li’s death and remembrance will be politically fraught, as he represented a different path for China where the economic future was as important to the leaders in Beijing as the political future. Li was not a democrat or liberal, and he was part of the regime responsible for the continued repression of the peoples of China—but he was also a leader who understood a more pragmatic and economically engaged China was better for China and the world.
Now, China follows a different way, Xi’s way, and U.S. and allied policymakers have to respond. But despite his consolidation of power, Xi cannot rule forever. Crafting our policy towards China, let’s be steadfast about the challenge before us but open should those inspired by Li take the reins of China again. While the Party censors tried to remove it from the official transcript of his farewell remarks earlier this year, as Li stepped down from the premiership he made a veiled swipe at Xi and left a reminder for us all: “While people work, heaven watches. Heaven has eyes.”
Dan Mahaffee is Senior Vice President at the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress
Part 1: China’s Shipbuilding Industry Far Surpasses U.S. Counterpart
By Kory Yueh
Above: A U.S. aircraft carrier being docked.
“A good navy is not a provocation to war. It is the surest guarantee of peace.” These were the words of President Theodore Roosevelt in his second annual speech to Congress on December 2nd, 1902. In a world now dominated by nuclear weapons and the weaponization of information, this proverb may seem outdated, but it still holds true in the world of U.S. foreign policy. In the Indo-Pacific region, it is impossible to avoid discussing the escalating competition between the United States and China. Since the beginning of China’s internal reforms in the late 20th century, the Chinese state has risen to the point of potentially usurping America’s position as the world’s premier superpower. One critical element of this competitive framework is military strength. In particular, the ability of the Chinese and U.S. navies to project force across the Indo-Pacific will take center stage and inevitably lead to potential clashes.
In September 2023, an image from a classified U.S. Navy Intelligence briefing was leaked and confirmed. It revealed a stark disparity between the United States and China in the arena of industrial shipbuilding capacity. This disparity clarified that the Chinese shipbuilding industry outmatches its American counterpart by an order of 232 times—a stunning 23.2 million tons compared to the U.S. output of less than 100,000 tons. Although it is true that the U.S. fleet is qualitatively more powerful than the Chinese fleet ton-for-ton, it is also important to consider the strategic contexts behind this disparity, which helps explain why U.S. officials should take heed of the disparity for the sake of our national security.
It comes as no surprise that the Chinese state has long been determined to become a global superpower, despite soothing rhetoric such as “cooperation over competition” to characterize U.S. -Chinese relations. Since Xi Jinping’s rise to power, his agenda to rejuvenate the Chinese state and achieve a “Chinese Century” implicitly includes supplanting the United States in the global order. His goals are thus a substantial threat to America’s strategic interests within the Indo-Pacific, particularly with regards to Taiwan and the South China Sea. To meet these daunting goals, the Chinese manufacturing industry has expanded at the fastest pace in more than a decade since the end of COVID-19 restrictions.
At the same time analysts have noted that the U.S. defense industry lacks resilience in terms of supply chain shocks, and the flexibility to adapt to sudden geopolitical changes such as Russia’s war against Ukraine. For example, a 2021 White House report declared that there were numerous “long-standing vulnerabilities in U.S. supply chains [such as] insufficient manufacturing capacity, misaligned incentives, limited international coordination, and foreign industrial policies.” These vulnerabilities were most apparent throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and the beginning months of the Russian invasion, when defense industries struggled to adjust munitions production to account for abrupt surges in demand. While private industry has no obligation to maintain a high rate of supply when there is little demand, it is critical that they develop strategies for ramping up production in times of geopolitical crisis. But, what does this have to do with the U.S. and Chinese navies?
In one word: everything. Whether it comes down to the steel needed by shipbuilders, the critical minerals needed for the computer systems embedded into warships, or the munitions to arm those warships—the foundation of a nation’s navy is its industrial ability to produce, supply, and replace the fleet. Put simply, without industrial capacity, there can be no wartime capability, or meaningful discussions of naval strategy and doctrine.
Above: A graphed version of the data from the CRS report, showcasing America’s downward trend in warship production.
The solution to this mismatch may seem simple: Congress just needs to invest tens of billions of dollars into rapidly expanding the size of the Navy in the next decade. Alas, the reality is far more troublesome. Beyond the historical trend of decreasing ship orders for shipyards, the shipbuilding industry faces a critical shortage of skilled workers such as engineers, electricians, welders, and shipbuilders. Shipbuilding companies are struggling to retain experienced workers lured away by more lucrative industries such as oil and gas. Furthermore, the U.S. Navy, like every other armed branch in the United States, will miss its recruiting goal for 2023 by 7,000 recruits—widening the gap between the United States and an ever-increasingly competitive China. The Chinese military has been increasing recruitment by raising the age limits for potential recruits, for instance, and offering stronger incentives for graduate students to enlist with the Chinese Navy for aircraft training. Simultaneously, Chinese recruiters have been attempting to poach pilots from the United Kingdom, causing the British government to release a statement that they were “taking steps” to decisively halt British personnel, active and retired, from training PLA forces.
While it’s important to identify obstacles to the U.S. Navy’s expansion plans, however, we need also to highlight their efforts to address them. I had the opportunity to attend a Congressional hearing by the House Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces, chaired by Rep. Trent Kelly (R-MS). During this hearing, many of the aforementioned issues—talent shortages, production delays, to name a few—were raised and addressed. The witnesses, officials of the Department of the Navy and uniformed Navy officials, emphasized that they would execute on the following objectives:
Shipbuilding is a long game, and requires an intersection between public and private stakeholders to supplement the Navy’s expansion, specifically in nuclear submarines.
An integrated manufacturing supply chain is being developed to build resilience against supply chain shocks and unexpected shortages.
The Navy intends to capitalize nuclear submarine production and to address issues related to maintenance backlogs to expand the U.S. presence in the Indo-Pacific. Nuclear submarines–either in the U.S. Navy or within the Australia, United Kingdom and United States (AUKUS) partnership –will swing the strategic favor onto our side against China.
The Navy is working with the private shipbuilding industry to assess and retain the best labor pool possible, outsourcing and exponentially increasing outsource work across the United States to public & private yards.
The Navy is constantly working to expand recruitment efforts to communities that are not necessarily local to shipyards, seeking to attract talent from inland communities that have the skills and desire high-paying jobs. New technology to improve the scale of production and to address future shortages of talent will also be emphasized.
The October 25th hearing confirmed my findings that the U.S. Navy is facing difficult short-term and long-term challenges in maintaining its stature in the Indo-Pacific. With the election of a new Speaker who has already vocalized his concerns over the federal deficit, it is possible that the U.S. Navy will have to fight even harder to justify its expansion plans, and to address the industrial gaps that exist between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s efforts to usurp the U.S. Navy will certainly continue, regardless of our domestic challenges—and it is imperative for the United States to move forward, full steam ahead, on its naval-industrial commitments.
Opposition Wins Polish Election in Victory for European Democracy
By Julian Mancillas
During its eight years as the dominant force in Polish politics, the populist and euro-sceptic Law and Justice (PiS) party has changed Poland dramatically, using its increasingly unchecked power to reshape the nation into an “illiberal democracy” in the same vein as Viktor Orban’s Hungary. While using popular policies such as an increase in social welfare payments to garner electoral support, Law and Justice steered Poland in a hard-right direction, curtailing the independence of the media and judiciary, greatly restricting access to abortion, and targeting migrants and the LGBTQ+ community. Under PiS leadership, Poland had also begun to clash openly with the European Union over issues such as respect for the rule of law and human rights.
The Polish general election held on October 15, 2023 is thus widely viewed in Europe as a watershed event that is likely to shift Poland in a more liberal, democratic, and pro-European direction. While PiS won 35.4 percent of the vote, giving the party 194 seats and making them the largest party in the parliament, the election left it far below the 231 seats needed to form a government.
Meanwhile, the centrist Civic Coalition led by former Prime Minister Donald Tusk won 157 seats (or 30.7%); the center right Third Way won 65 seats (14.4%), and the Left won 26 seats (8.6%). That left them within reach of forming a new coalition government with a total of 248 seats in the parliament. The fact that Law and Justice had mobilized state media to support its reelection makes the election results all the more remarkable. While the results of the Polish election thus represent a victory for European democracy, it’s important to understand the many challenges a new, more liberal Polish government is likely to encounter.
The first and most immediate challenge is Polish President Andrzej Duda, a close ally of Law and Order. Not surprisingly, Duda has stated that PiS will be given the first opportunity to try and form a majority coalition as the single party with the most votes. Even if Law and Order is unsuccessful in its attempt, Duda could make life difficult for a more liberal coalition government by using his veto to block legislative changes designed to loosen Law and Order’s iron grip on Polish politics. Duda could also conceivably attempt to use the Polish Supreme Court – or Constitutional Tribunal – to block reforms aimed at restoring the independence of Poland’s judiciary. PiS also continues to exert influence over state media and certain state-owned companies that could complicate life for a new coalition government.
Despite those challenges and potential obstacles, the formation of a new, pro-European Union (EU) government and the defeat of the deeply euro-sceptic PiS will have a profound impact on internal E.U. politics. Donald Tusk, who will likely be the new coalition’s candidate for prime minister, was previously President of the European Council, and he remains a staunch supporter of the union. The message that E.U. officials in Brussels are likely to take from the recent election is that Tusk’s coalition is ready to restore the independence of the Polish judiciary and media, paving the way for a much closer and less contentious relationship with the E.U. That would give Poland, the fifth largest country in the E.U., a larger voice in European politics and further isolate illiberal Hungary. In the past the PiS government in Warsaw vetoed attempts by the European Commission to suspend Hungary’s E.U. voting rights as punishment for violating the union’s democracy principles. A more liberal and pro-European government in Warsaw could thus represent an important shift in the E.U.’s balance of power, promoting further European integration and ending Hungary’s serial obstruction of E.U. reforms.Ukraine also stands to benefit from the results of the Polish elections. Polish-Ukrainian relations deteriorated in September when Poland decided to continue blocking Ukrainian grain exports despite the expiration of an E.U. embargo. The incident escalated when Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy called the move “political theatre” that only benefited Russia. In response, Poland’s Law and Order Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki ended further weapons exports to Ukraine, depriving Ukraine of one of its strongest supporters. The victory of Donald Tusk’s coalition in recent elections, however, strongly suggests a return to Poland’s staunch support of Ukraine. In that sense, the leader who is most disappointed in the result of the recent Polish election is probably Russian President Vladimir Putin, who would have liked nothing better than to see an irreconcilable split between Warsaw and Kiev.
The most important impact of the recent Polish election, however, is that it begins to reverse a rising tide of authoritarianism in Europe. Over the past two decades there has been a marked and worrying increase in the number of right wing parties successfully entering mainstream politics, for instance, whether led by Viktor Orban in Hungary, Giorgia Meloni in Italy, or Robert Fico in Slovakia. Even in Germany, where the rise of populist, right-wing parties invokes worrisome historical memories, the virulently anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AFD) party has made major gains.
Poland’s recent election shows that even after a right-wing government intent on subverting democratic principles and institutions has ruled for eight long years, the damage is not irreversible. The unmistakable message that Polish voters have sent forth is that the march of authoritarianism in Europe is not inevitable. In that sense the true winner in the recent Polish election was European democracy.
News You May Have Missed
China Launches First Nuclear-Powered Guided Missile Submarines
By Kory Yueh
In recent weeks China has launched its first nuclear-powered guided missile submarines, according to the Pentagon’s latest report on the Chinese military. As the Chinese PLA Navy continues to expand its arsenal of warships, its capabilities will also continue to grow, demonstrating land-based and sea-based missile systems that can threaten U.S. naval forces and allies within the Indo-Pacific region. This comes at a pivotal time of Sino-American tension as the United States continues to work on strengthening the Australian, United Kingdom and U.S. partnership (AUKUS), supporting its naval infrastructure, and scaling their strategies to accommodate China's ever-evolving military power. However, in light of these breakthroughs by the Chinese PLA, U.S. naval forces will continue to adjust and strengthen its operational resiliency in cooperation with regional allies, specifically through AUKUS, as they seek to build interoperability and mutual security exercises across the Indo-Pacific.
California Governor Newsom Meets Chinese President Xi
By Kory Yueh
The Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, just met Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday in a weeklong visit to discuss climate change, raising hopes that the United States and China can reach amity and common ground ahead of the upcoming mid-November APEC summit, followed by the COP28 climate summit. President Xi and President Biden are expected to meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in San Francisco, but as of this writing, nothing has been confirmed. Furthermore, the California governor and Xi emphasized that climate change could become a common enemy that brings the United States and China closer together as allies, but much more work remains to be done before climate cooperation can overcome geopolitical tensions. Governor Newsom’s arrival to Beijing comes after previous visits from senior U.S. officials, including Senate Majority Leader Schumer (D-NY) and U.S. climate envoy John Kerry, reflecting diplomatic efforts to cool Sino-American relations and increase cooperation. .
Turkey’s Erdogan Insists Hamas Is Not a Terrorist Organization
By Kory Yueh
In a bold and assertive stance, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan insisted on Wednesday that the Palestinian militant group Hamas is not a terrorist organization, but rather a liberation group fighting to protect Palestinian lands and sovereignty. As a member-state of NATO, Turkey has gone on the record condemning civilian deaths caused by Hamas’ Oct. 7 rampage across southern Israel, while simultaneously criticizing Israel’s bombardment of Gaza and killing of Palestinian civilians. Regional neighbors and allies such as Italy have criticized the Turkish president for his stance. If it was not already a difficult and sensitive geopolitical issue, the division between Turkey, Israel, and other NATO members will continue to complicate foreign relations between the United States and its Atlantic-Mediterranean partners, adding to a mountainous list of challenges that the Biden administration faces in the region. . President Erdogan’s remarks suggest that the conflict will continue to escalate tensions in the region and increase the possibility of a catastrophic escalation. .
Kory Yueh is a student intern at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress.
Taiwan’s Foxconn Faces Politically Motivated Chinese Tax Probe
By Julian Mancillas
The Taiwanese electronic manufacturer Foxconn is reportedly facing a tax probe by the Chinese government. China’s government backed newspaper the Global Times reported that some of Foxconn’s subsidiaries are the subject of tax audits and the natural resources department had conducted on-site inspections on land owned by the company. Given that the tax probe was made public just three months before Taiwan’s presidential election, it is very likely that information regarding the audit was released by the Chinese government in order to exert political pressure on Taiwan and sway the election’s outcome. Such a strategy would not be unusual given that the Taiwanese government has accused Beijing of previously attempting to intervene in Taiwan’s elections in order to ensure a result favorable to China.
Their method for intervening this time was carefully chosen: Terry Gou, Foxconn’s founder, is running as an independent in Taiwan's upcoming election. By running, Gou may split the opposition vote, thus ensuring a victory for the Democratic Progressive Party’s candidate Vice President Lai Ching, who the Chinese government views as a separatist. Lai asserts that only Taiwan’s people can decide their future, a stance that doesn’t play well with Beijing. Only time will tell if China’s efforts to interfere in Taiwan’s democratic presidential election will succeed, but regardless of who wins the result will have an impact on cross-strait relations.
Pentagon Reports China’s Fighter Jet Fleet Growing
By Julian Mancillas
Recently the U.S. Department of Defense released its annual China Military Power Report, a congressionally mandated assessment on the capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The report states that China in the past year has accelerated “its development of capabilities and concepts to strengthen the PRC's ability to 'fight and win wars' against a 'strong enemy' which in the context of current Sino-American confrontation almost certainly means the United States. One important piece of information mentioned in the report is that China's fighter jet fleet has been expanded and improved with both the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) and PLA Navy (PLAN) combined having 1,300 fourth generation fighter jets out of 1,900 total fighters by the end of 2022. This is a significant increase from 2021 when the PLAAF and PLAN only had 800 fourth generation aircraft out of 1,800 fighter jets. A key explanation for the explosive growth in Chinese fighter jet capability is a significant increase in the development and production of domestically produced Chinese aircraft engines. As part of this effort China is beginning to phase out Russian jet engines in their aircraft in favor of domestically produced WS-10 engines, allowing the PLA to expand aircraft production. Such a substantial increase in the power of China’s fighter jet fleet sends a signal that U.S. defense strategy should be updated to account for the growth in China’s air assets.
Julian Mancillas is a student intern at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress