Friday News Roundup - October 13, 2023
This week, Joshua C. Huminski, the Director of the Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence & Global Affairs, offered his thoughts on Israel’s intelligence failure in Gaza. Huminski wrote for the Messenger that it was as much Hamas’ intelligence and counterintelligence success as it was the failure of Israel’s security services that led to the horrific attack on Saturday.
Huminski also reviewed Mustafa Suleyman’s “The Coming Wave” about artificial intelligence’s rise and the challenges of containment for the Diplomatic Courier, and “The Fight for the Final Frontier” about irregular warfare in space by John Klein for GMU’s National Security Institute SCIF blog.
War Clouds Gather as Congress Dithers
By James Kitfield
U.S. federal and state flags flew at half-mast this week out of respect and grief for one of the worst attacks on close ally Israel in that nation’s history. Launched from Gaza on October 7 by the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas, the massive and well-planned attack on Israel began with a barrage of rockets fired at civilian targets, followed by infiltration of Israeli communities by more than one thousand Hamas fighters. In its first hours the attack claimed the lives of more than 1,200 people – to include at least 22 Americans – with more than 3,000 Israelis wounded. The horror of the attack, which involved the kidnapping of more than 100 people and the wanton slaughter of men, women, children and even infants, prompted Israeli officials to describe it as their country’s 9/11.
By week’s end Israel had declared war on Hamas, announced the “complete siege” of Gaza, and mobilized 360,000 military reservists. Israeli counterstrikes have already killed more than 1,500 Gazans and wounded more than 5,000 others, according to local officials, and Hamas claimed that 13 of its hostages had died in the bombardment. According to media reports, Israeli security forces and some Israeli settlers have also killed 27 Palestinians in an increasingly tense West Bank.
In response to the unprecedented terrorist attack on Israel, President Biden announced that the United States unequivocally “stands with Israel.” The White House sent Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the region, backed by the military power of the Gerald R. Ford carrier battle group. In a pointed reference to Iran and its terrorist proxy Hezbollah, Biden confirmed he “made it clear” to Tehran that it should not interfere in the hostilities between Israel and Hamas. With many officials and analysts noting Iran’s complicity in the attack because of its deep and years-long support for Hamas in terms of funding and weapons, the risks of escalation are likely to increase as fighting grows more intense in the days and weeks ahead.
Israel’s “9/11” and the all-out war Hamas has provoked raise profound strategic questions that bear directly on the United States’ position in the Middle East. How were the vaunted Israeli intelligence services and their U.S. partners completely blind to a surprise attack involving thousands of participants and requiring months of planning and rehearsal? Who will govern Gaza if Israel is successful in breaking Hamas’ grip? What impact will the war have on a Palestinian Authority in the West Bank that has been progressively weakened by the most right-wing Israeli government in the nation’s history, one intent on expanding Israeli settlements on Palestinian territory and even annexing the West Bank? What impact will the conflict have on recent U.S.-brokered negotiations to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia? How will the war impact venerable U.S. efforts to shift diplomatic attention and military resources away from the Middle East in order to focus more heavily on counter-balancing a rising China in the Indo-Pacific?
Perhaps most urgently, how will the United States adequately support Israel in its time of need while also continuing to aid Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression in Europe?
Indeed, while the flags hanging at half-mast over the Capitol building this week signify moral support for Israel, they might just as well be read as a Mayday signal given the chaos and dysfunction that have played out beneath the dome. A week and a half after a small, far-right faction of House Republicans ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-CA, for depending on Democratic votes to avoid a government shutdown, the House of Representatives remains leaderless and rudderless.
After winning an internal vote among the Republican caucus, Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-LA., dropped out of the speaker race on Thursday because he lacked the necessary 217 votes needed for election in the full chamber. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, is still in the running, but to date the far-right former chair of the House Freedom Caucus and pugnacious defender of former President Donald Trump has been unable to muster the required support among Republican moderates.
Meanwhile, without a speaker the House cannot consider any legislation to aid Israel in its war against Hamas, pass badly needed additional aid requested by the White House for Ukraine and its war against Russia, or move any appropriations bills whose passage is required to avoid a government shut-down in mid-November.
As they contemplate next moves to try and restore order in the House, leaders on both sides of the aisle should consider how recent months of prolonged political dysfunction in Israel were likely perceived by its sworn enemies as both a vulnerability and an opportunity, and they acted on those perceptions. Much as Russia decided to invade Ukraine only months after the chaotic and shambolic retreat of U.S. forces from Afghanistan in 2021.
Perceptions matter in geopolitics. With war now waging in Europe and the Middle East involving close allies, and the United States government lurching between partisan paralysis and self-induced crisis, there are keen observers in Moscow and Beijing carefully weighing vulnerabilities and opportunities, and asking themselves a familiar question: Is today the day?
To address those concerns in this week’s Friday News Roundup, CSPC’s Julian Mancillas examines ways that future Ukraine aid could pass in Congress, the obstacles to such passage, and the profound consequences for U.S. foreign policy if the Biden administration and Congress fail to reach agreement on continuing to support Ukraine.
In our “News You Might Have Missed” feature, Mancillas also examines NATO’s challenge in supporting both Ukraine and Israel in their moment of existential need. In a companion post, CSPC’s Kory Yueh flags China’s recently announced extension of its investigation into Taiwan’s alleged “trade barriers,” obviously timed to interfere with and influence an upcoming Taiwanese presidential election. Yueh also calls attention to a “Belt and Road Forum” that China will soon host, an event that Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend in a rare overseas appearance.
You can bet that the two leaders will hold close discussions about geopolitical vulnerabilities and opportunities, and their mutual perceptions of both. Even if unspoken, a familiar question will undoubtedly hang over their talks: Is today the day?
James Kitfield is a Senior Fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress, and a three-time recipient of the Gerald R. Ford Award for Distinguished Reporting on National Defense.
Fighting for Ukraine Aid and Against Isolationism
By Julian Mancillas
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began on February 24th, 2022 the United States has been Kiev’s indispensable ally. In addition to diplomatically rallying Western support for Ukraine, the United States alone has contributed more than $75 billion dollars in assistance, including $46 billion is military aid. The U.S. has provided real-time intelligence, critical munitions, and even advanced weaponry such as Abrams tanks and Patriot air defense systems. Such strong support demonstrates America’s determination to back democracies threatened by authoritarian regimes, deter future naked aggression, and protect the rules-based international order created after the devastation of World War II. Critically, it also reassures allies around the world that the United States can be trusted to follow through on its security commitments.
Recently President Biden’s commitment that the United States would continue supporting Ukraine “for as long as it takes,” however, has been called into question. When the House passed a Continuing Resolution (CR) that prevented a looming government shutdown, for instance, it pointedly failed to include security assistance for Ukraine requested by the White House. After Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) struck Ukraine aid from the resolution in an effort to appease far-right members of his party who strongly oppose it, they ousted him from the speakership regardless. The drama has left continuing U.S. support for Ukraine on shaky footing on Capitol Hill, with many unanswered questions about what the future might hold.
To address these concerns, I believe it is essential to examine ways that future Ukraine aid could pass, the obstacles to such passage, and the profound consequences for U.S. foreign policy if the Biden administration and Congress fail to reach agreement on continuing to support Ukraine.
Despite the removal of Ukraine aid from the CR and the growing number of House Republicans opposing future security assistance, bipartisan majorities in Congress still support funding Ukraine, especially in the Senate. At the White House, President Biden continues to argue in favor of providing aid, stating that “We cannot under any circumstances allow America’s support for Ukraine to be interrupted.” The challenge that Biden and other supporters of Ukraine face is how to include additional security assistance in a future appropriations bill.
While the passage of the Continuing Resolution provides the U.S. government a temporary reprieve, Congress still likely needs to pass an appropriations bill to avoid a future government shutdown. This leaves Congress with two primary paths for passing future aid for Ukraine. The first is to include Ukraine aid in a larger appropriation bill that provides funding to keep the U.S. government open. In an effort to make Ukraine aid more appealing to House Republicans, for instance, some Senate Republicans have proposed a political compromise: tie Ukraine aid to additional funds and policy changes to tighten security and immigration rules at the U.S.-Mexico border.
The second option would include Ukraine aid in a supplemental appropriations bill. There are rumors that the Senate is hoping to pass an appropriations bill that contains 12 to 14 months of Ukraine aid to be paid out in increments, for instance, in hopes that aid to Ukraine can be assured through the 2024 election year, thus preventing it from becoming a contentious issue in the presidential race.
Given Congress’ constitutional power of the purse, the only way to ensure long term funding for Ukraine is to include it in an appropriations bill that passes both the House and Senate. In the short term, however, President Biden does have tools to temporarily ensure the flow of aid to Ukraine until passage of an appropriations bill. For instance, the Biden administration has transferred thousands of seized Iranian weapons and munitions to Ukraine that were intercepted by the U.S. Navy on the way to the Houthi insurgency in Yemen. Additionally, Biden has hinted at the possibility of using existing State Department funds to support Ukrainians in the short term. Unfortunately, such measures are only short-term workarounds in the current funding crisis. In order to sustain U.S. support and prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine, it is imperative that Congress come to an agreement on an appropriations bill that includes Ukrainian security assistance.
The most immediate obstacle to such an agreement is the lack of a House Speaker. One of the Republicans who has declared their candidacy for Speaker, Congressman Jim Jordan, (R-Ohio), is staunchly opposed to more aid for Ukraine. He has stated that “the most pressing issue on Americans' minds is not Ukraine, It is the border situation, and it's crime on the streets. And everybody knows that. So let's address those.” There is the added possibility that another candidate, who may have supported Ukraine aid in the past, would be forced to block aid to Ukraine as a concession to hardliners in his own party. This is a position that House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA.) may have found himself in if he hadn’t chosen to drop out of the Speaker race. The House Republican Caucus’ decision on who becomes the next Speaker of the House will thus have major consequences for Ukraine aid specifically, and American foreign policy writ large.
There is little doubt that U.S. support for Ukraine is viewed as a bellwether for our commitment to our allies around the world. Our European partners in NATO have already expressed concern that absent U.S. leadership and financial support, Ukraine may well fail in its war effort. Continued U.S. support for Ukraine also sends an important message to potential adversaries that the United States will stand up against aggression. Vladmir Putin is clearly counting on growing American disinterest and political infighting, for instance, to cut off Ukraine’s military support. As Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated, “Fatigue over this conflict will grow in various countries, including the U.S. Fatigue will lead to the fragmentation of the political establishment.”
U.S. aid for Ukraine also has profound implications for Taiwan. China is closely watching how events unfold in Ukraine, and should the United States grow fatigued and end assistance to Ukraine, the clear signal sent to Beijing would be that Washington, D.C. and the Western alliance of democracies that we lead would similarly tire from aiding Taiwan in the case of a Chinese invasion.
Moving forward, I argue that providing sufficient aid to help Ukraine defend itself against Russian aggression is clearly in the United States’ own best interest. It is quantifiably degrading the Russian war machine, increasing interest in European democracies like Sweden and Finland in joining the NATO alliance, and demonstrating U.S. commitment to the rules based international order. For these reasons Congress must continue to pass Ukraine funding regardless of the obstacles. Failure to do so in a fit of isolationism would strike a profound blow to America’s status as a global superpower and make the world a far more dangerous place for democracies.
Julian Mancillas is a student intern at the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress
News You May Have Missed
China to Host Belt & Road Forum in Beijing, Oct 17-18
By Kory Yueh
China will be hosting its third Belt and Road Forum from October 17th to October 18th, celebrating the 10th anniversary of the economic program. Classified as a major event to reinvigorate international and domestic enthusiasm with the Belt and Road Initiative, the event expects to host representatives from many developing countries in Africa and Latin America. In addition, it will also be expecting the attendance of President Vladimir Putin. This event reflects the first time that President Putin has left Russian borders since the International Criminal Court released a warrant for his arrest in March 2023. Putin expressed strong interest in the conference, seeking to deepen Russian-Chinese ties with the hopes of “ensuring security and stability on the Eurasian continent and throughout the world.”
China extends Taiwan trade probe, Taipei Cries Election Interference
By Kory Yueh
On Monday, China announced an extension of its investigation into Taiwan’s alleged “trade barriers” against it. However, Taiwanese representatives protested the motivation and timing behind this investigation since it interferes with the Taiwanese presidential election. The investigation itself was specifically extended to January 12th, 2024, a day before Taiwan’s presidential election day. This has drawn criticism from Taiwan’s Office of Trade Negotiations who have commented that China’s investigation was not only a politically malicious barb against Taiwan’s autonomy, but also a violation of international norms via the World Trade Organization. Alas, this is not an isolated case of Chinese efforts to subtly or overtly manipulate Taiwanese elections in past years. The Chinese government offered no explanation for why its investigation was extended either. Between political pressure and military patrols, the Chinese government has continued its efforts to undermine Taiwanese government activities.
Kory Yueh is a student intern at the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress
NATO’s challenge: How to support both Ukraine and Israel
By Julian Mancillas
On Wednesday October 11th, 2023 defense ministers from NATO countries flew to Brussels for a meeting where they meant to discuss the next steps they need to take to support Ukraine in its war against Russia. However, due to the recent surprise attacks launched by Hamas against Israel, the topic for discussion among NATO members has begun to shift as a new sense of urgency about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict emerges. The attack has motivated Western countries to provide more aid to Israel as it begins to retaliate and prepare for an offensive into the Gaza strip. President Biden has stated that the United States will be speeding up military assistance to Israel by giving them ammunition and interceptors to replenish the vaunted “Iron Dome” anti-missile defense system. This split in NATO’s focus comes at an inopportune time for Ukraine as they hope to garner further NATO support for their war against Russia. There has been some fear among Ukrainians about whether Western nations will be able to remain focused on Russia’s invasion as well as the escalating situation in Israel. The United States is currently trying to alleviate such concerns with the American ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith stating that the U.S. will “stay focused on our partnership and commitment to Israel’s security, while also meeting our commitments and promise to continue supporting Ukraine, as it defends its territory and protects all of the values that all of us hold dear here across the NATO alliance.” To demonstrate their commitment to Ukraine, NATO pledged an additional $2 billion dollars of additional military aid that will be delivered before winter arrives. However, in the future NATO will have to maintain a careful balancing act in order to aid both Israel and Ukraine.
Julian Mancillas is a student intern at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress