Friday News Roundup — January 26, 2024
This past week reinforces the old journalistic adage that there are no slow news days anymore for America, and that is true both at home and abroad. On Tuesday former President Donald Trump took another major step towards becoming the Republican nominee in this year’s presidential election, beating former South Carolina governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley with 54 versus 43 percent of the vote. Though Haley pledges to stay in the race, it is shaping up as one of the quickest nomination battles in modern history, as Republican voters coalesce around a twice-impeached former president and serial election denier facing 91 charges across four criminal cases, two of which involve his refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election despite its determination as legitimate in scores of U.S. courts. Speaking of courts, the former president took the stand this week in a Manhattan court to testify in a defamation trial involving writer E. Jean Carroll, who an earlier trial concluded was sexually abused by Trump in the mid-1990s and owed $5 million in damages.
After being buffeted for two years by high inflation and predictions of a looming recession, the Joe Biden administration received some welcome good news on the economy this week. On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the nation’s economy grew by 2.5 percent over the last year, and shot to an annual rate of 3.3 percent growth in the latest quarter. The news comes amidst other signs of economic progress, to include lower gas prices, recent caps on drug prices, and an increase in positive consumer sentiment.
In Congress this week prospects dimmed for a deal being negotiated by a small group of bipartisan Senators that would tie critically needed military aid to Ukraine and Israel to more stringent immigration policies on the southern border that would make it harder for migrants seeking asylum. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-KY., reportedly conceded to his Republican colleagues that the politics for passing the deal had dimmed significantly after Trump slammed it on social media, presumably preferring to keep the border crisis unresolved as a potent issue in the presidential campaign.
With U.S. military aid to Ukraine entangled in domestic politics, the Pentagon arrived empty-handed at a monthly meeting of about 50 nations that coordinate support for Ukraine. In opening remarks broadcast from his home, where he is recuperating from prostate cancer surgery, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin urged the group to “dig deep to provide Ukraine with more lifesaving ground-based air defense systems and interceptors” to counteract increased Russian missile attacks. In related news, Moscow said that a Russian military transport plane that was reportedly shot down near the border with Ukraine, killing all 74 people on board, was actually carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war headed for a prisoner swap. U.S. and Ukrainian officials were unable to confirm the Russian reports.
This week the Biden administration also dispatched CIA Director William Burns to the Middle East to try and broker a complex deal between Israel and Hamas that would involve the release of all remaining Israeli hostages held in Gaza in exchange for a two-month ceasefire in hostilities. The Israelis have also proposed that the deal include a stipulation that senior Hamas military officials must leave Gaza, but officials close to the negotiations reportedly said that was a nonstarter with the terrorist leaders who planned the October 7, 2023 attack that killed more than 1,200 Israelis in the worst day for Jews since the Holocaust. Meanwhile, the death toll in Gaza has exceeded 25,000, according to health officials there, and the head of the World Health Organization this week called the number of civilian deaths “horrendous.”
A New Phase in U.S.-China Relations
By Dan Mahaffee
As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has aggressively inserted itself into the domestic business sector in recent years, international investors have become increasingly concerned that politics and government control increasingly trump profits in the world’s second largest economy. Beijing’s increasingly firm grip on business practices has also led the United States and many of its allies to impose regulations to prevent foreign investments into sensitive sectors and companies having to do with the “geotech” competition for the technologies of the future.
In the New Year signs of this new normal have started to reveal themselves in terms of international investment and stock market performance in China. Indeed, as the New York Times reported, stocks in China recently hit lows not seen since a route in 2015, with Hong Kong’s Index becoming the worst-performing major market in the world over the past year. Stocks stabilized only when Beijing recently signaled its intention to intervene, with Bloomberg reporting this week that Chinese authorities are considering a $279 billion market rescue.
All of this comes as a pronounced shift in U.S.-China relations has reached what can be best described as, in Winston Churchill’s famous phrase, the “end of the beginning.” Rising acrimony in the U.S.-China relationship based on a growing technological competition and security concerns have only been partially tempered by the stubborn realities of economic interdependence. That reliance explains recent efforts by both Washington and Beijing to steer the relationship towards more manageable levels of tension, with mixed results.
Nevertheless, an era defined by a consensus in both countries about the mutual benefits of economic interdependence has come to an end. That consensus was undermined by the global pandemic that began in China, by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s iron grip and hegemonic aspirations, and by a growing hawkishness towards Beijing in U.S. politics. The paramount question in geopolitics as the world’s status quo and ascendant superpowers square off and look to an uncertain future is now clear: how can this competition for power and global influence avoid escalating into disastrous conflict?
Certainly there is predicate for the increasing hawkishness in the United States, where a new consensus in the body politic backs a harder line with China. As the most powerful Chinese leader in a generation, Xi has largely abandoned China’s economic openness and patient diplomacy in favor of a national security state intent on regional expansion and bullying “wolf warrior” diplomacy. The political consolidation of power by Xi Jinping has thus been accompanied by a marked shift in policy that emphasizes national security and focuses on the United States and its regional allies not as close economic partners, but rather as threats to Beijing’s regional and global ambitions. That has pushed U.S. policymakers, lawmakers and industry leaders — not to mention foreign investors — to reconsider ties to, and dependence on, China.
In response to economic turmoil and heavy indebtedness in the real estate sector, declining domestic consumer confidence and the economic hangover of Beijing’s “Zero Covid” policies, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has decisively backed away from its previous economic model of close engagement with the West. That policy shift has been accompanied by CCP crackdowns targeting industry leaders in the technology, finance, and real estate sectors.
Raids have been conducted on Western “due diligence” and accounting firms in an effort to tighten control on information. In response to new U.S. restrictions on China’s access to technology in areas like semiconductors and Artificial Intelligence (AI), Beijing has implemented export controls to limit U.S. access to critical minerals necessary for the transition to a green economy.
This escalating trade war and protectionism has prompted many Western corporations to search for new sources and supply chains. For foreign companies, the emphasis on national security policies by the CCP — programs like “Military-Civil Fusion” and expansive laws on national security and intelligence gathering — blur the line between commercial engagement with Chinese industry, and technology transfers that could ultimately threaten U.S. and allied security.
As Washington and Beijing move in opposing directions, nations and corporations are being forced to rebalance their equities between these two economic and military behemoths. Companies are hedging by diversifying supply chains and splitting off China-based subsidiaries. The term-du-jour for this decoupling is “de-risking.” Nations are also being forced to find a new equilibrium between these two superpowers. Many U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific are weighing their security concerns versus economic ties to China.
China’s recent economic underperformance and difficulties have clearly undermined the narrative of China inevitably surpassing the United States as a global power. Given these mounting tensions, it was a significant accomplishment that President Joe Biden and Xi Jinping were able to meet last November in San Francisco. Both sides maintain they are seeking to “find a new floor” underneath the sinking bilateral relationship, and find areas of increased cooperation. Better crisis management may prove the most substantive outcome of the meeting, with both sides agreeing to the resumption of important military-to-military engagements and a military hotline to avoid miscalculations. U.S. and Chinese diplomats also expressed cautious optimism in talks on climate change, reductions in Chinese exports of fentanyl precursors, and potential regulations governing Artificial Intelligence.
But the signs are unmistakable that the U.S.-China relationship is now entering a “new normal” phase, as a return to the “old normal” of unrestrained economic interdependence now seems unrealistic. This new phase in relations between the world’s two superpowers will require careful management of tensions, and a clear-eyed understanding that allowing the relationship to veer from intense competition to confrontation and conflict would serve the interests of neither nation, nor the rest of an apprehensive world.
Dan Mahaffee is Senior Vice President and the Director of Policy at the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress
A Growing Russia-North Korea Alliance
By Greyson Hunziker
Increasingly North Korea has acted as the “arsenal of autocracy,” supplying Russia with millions of artillery rounds and dozens of missiles for use in Moscow’s war of aggression against Ukraine. This military aid is evidence of a tightening relationship between these two nations that goes deeper than simple transactional military cooperation.
Russia and North Korea have historically had a complicated relationship. Following World War II, the Soviet Union put Kim Il Sung into power in the North. The Soviets then backed North Korea with military and economic aid during and after the Korean War of the early 1950s. However, China was also competing with the Soviet Union for influence in Pyongyang, and North Korea would later play the major communist powers against one another to extract more aid from both. Under Soviet reformer Mikhail Gorbachev the Soviet Union began to favor improving relations with South Korea, however, and Boris Yeltsin continued these policies after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
After President Vladimir Putin’s rise to power, Russia went back to supporting North Korea more assertively. Though Moscow supported United Nations Security Council sanctions against North Korea related to its nuclear and missile program in the 2000s, it also forgave 90 percent of Pyongyang’s $11 billion in debt in 2012.
By far, the most prominent display of their improving relationship has been North Korean support during the war against Ukraine. North Korea joined Syria as the only states to recognize the independence of the Russian-backed Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic in eastern Ukraine, which are viewed as illegitimate by the rest of the world. When Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, North Korea defended the aggression, citing Western “hegemonic policy” as justification. In return, Russia and China blocked U.S. efforts to strengthen Security Council sanctions on North Korea.
The closer Russia-North Korea alliance was on full display on January 16, 2024, when North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui met with Russian President Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Following the meeting, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry stated that the officials shared a “strong will to further strengthen strategic and tactical cooperation in defending the core interests of the two countries and establishing a new multi-polarized international order.” Russia thanked North Korea for its “full support” in the war against Ukraine.
Russia and North Korea seek a closer alliance because they face similar circumstances. Both autocratic states feel threatened by the global power of the United States and close and prosperous democratic allies such as Japan and South Korea. Moscow views the expansion of the NATO alliance of democracies as an encroachment into a “sphere of privileged influence” that harkens back to the age of imperialism. For its part, the “Hermit Kingdom” in Pyongyang wants protection from more prosperous U.S. allies South Korea and Japan.
The strengthening Russian-North Korean alliance is thus one of convenience and necessity. Russia would like more allies for diplomatic cover, and it desperately needs ammunition for its costly war in Ukraine. North Korea is seizing on the opportunity to secure aid from Russia and tap Moscow for technological assistance with its missile program.
This tightening relationship between Russia and North Korea will require responses from the West, especially the United States. If North Korea continues supplying Russia with arms and munitions, Western-backed Ukraine will need more assistance to defend itself. Ukraine is currently firing roughly 2,000 artillery rounds per day compared to 10,000 by the Russians. The Biden administration’s ability to secure additional military aide for Ukraine is far from guaranteed, however, as it has become a highly politicized issue in the United States.
The impact of a stronger Russian-North Korean alliance on the war in Ukraine is not the only concern in Washington. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un recently ordered that the constitution be amended to identify South Korea as “primary foe and invariable principle enemy.” North Korea also recently destroyed a monument representing hopes of reconciliation with the South. This week Pyongyang also conducted missile tests off its west coast, which South Korea viewed as a threat. In response, the United States, Japan, and South Korea conducted a military exercise “in a show of strength” against North Korea.
Given the strengthening alliance with Moscow, North Korea is likely to rapidly improve its missile technology and capability. For instance, in November North Korea launched its first spy satellite. As its weaponry improves markedly, many experts fear that Pyongyang will feel emboldened to act more aggressively. The United States and its allies thus must continue to support Ukraine in its defensive efforts and be prepared and vigilant against future North Korean aggression.
Greyson Hunziker is an intern for the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress
News You MAY Have Missed
Japan Lands on the Moon, Becoming Only Fifth Country to Reach Lunar Surface
By Kurt Johnston
Last Friday, Japan became only the fifth country to land a spacecraft on the Moon. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) announced its probe (known as the Smart Lander for Investigating Moon, or SLIM) had successfully reached the moon’s surface using a new “vision-based navigation technology.” SLIM’s system can land “within 100 meters” of its designated target, according to JAXA, whereas past Moon landings were only accurate to within several kilometers from the target point.
After its successful demonstration, this targeting technology may be incorporated into NASA’s Artemis project, which is scheduled to return humans — including the first woman and the first person of color — to the Moon for the first time since 1972. A global competition to be the first to find water on the lunar south pole has also emerged, with India landing a probe last year and the United States and China planning to send their respective spacecraft soon. While the JAXA mission has been unable to collect lunar data after a solar panel failure, its successful landing marks a new era in lunar-landing technology.
Spread of Militants, Coups Draws U.S. Attention to West Africa
By Kurt Johnston
Secretary of State Anthony Blinken toured West Africa this week, stopping in Cape Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Angola. His visit comes as the United States has pledged $300 million to support several West African states in their fight against extremist violence, which has drastically risen in the Sahel region in recent years. Organizations linked to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State are reportedly accountable for over 40,000 deaths in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso since 2017; each country has since experienced a military coup, with their respective juntas increasingly looking towards Russia’s Wagner Group for support. In response, Blinken promised a supplementary $45 million to coastal West Africa for their fight against extremism, and he met with Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara and Nigerian President Bola Tinubu.
Secretary Blinken’s trip also reflected the United States’ competition with China in the region. His visit to Angola came as the Biden Administration loaned $250 million to reconstruct the Lobito Corridor, a rail line that connects mines in Zambia with the Democratic Republic of Congo and Angola’s Atlantic coast. The United States took over the railroad’s development after an agreement for Chinese funding broke down. While U.S. officials have denied that competition with China was the chief motivation behind the investment, Blinken’s trip clearly demonstrates the United States’ increased support for infrastructure projects in the region.
Kurt Johnston is an intern at the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress