Friday News Roundup — May 15, 2020

Growing U.S.-China Rift; Tragedy & Uncertainty in Afghanistan; The High-Tech Soldiers of Tomorrow; plus News You May Have Missed

Good Friday morning from Washington, D.C. It’s been an eventful week in Washington. The White House continues to emphasize a message of re-opening the economy, while testimony to Congress highlighted the continuing risks posed by the Covid pandemic. The legal landscape inside the Beltway was even more cluttered, with Mike Flynn, Paul Manafort, President Trump’s taxes, and the New Jersey Bridgegate scandal all finding their way into the headlines. To top it all off, questions swirl around investigations regarding Senators’ stock trades as they learned about the pandemic threat earlier in the year.

At CSPC, Mike Rogers Center Director Joshua Huminski reviewed Chris Brose’s book Kill Chain which examines the future of warfare and assumptions about America’s technological edge.

Next week’s CSPC events feature a webinar with former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey on Thursday and an online discussion with Thomas Rid about his latest book Active Measures, on the history of disinformation and political warfare.

In this week’s roundup, Dan looks at how the U.S-China trade deal may be on the rocks, and what that means within the broader context of competition between Washington and Beijing. Joshua looks at the tragic brutality of the militant assault on a Kabul maternity ward and what it means for the conflict in Afghanistan. Ethan reviews SOCOMs recent announcement about exoskeleton technology and human performance augmentation for the American warfighter. As always, we wrap with news you may have missed.


It Takes Two to Decouple

Dan Mahaffee

In a Thursday interview with the Fox Business Channel, President Trump discussed the prospect of cutting off the entire trade relationship with China, claiming that it would save the United States “$500 billion.” This came following questions about his relationship with General Secretary Xi Jinping, which he described as “a very good relationship,” but President Trump added, “right now, I don’t want to speak to him. I don’t want to speak to him.”

This comes as tensions continue to increase between Washington and Beijing over China’s initial response to the Coronavirus, as well as broader questions about the Phase One trade agreement and its implementation during the global economic crisis caused by the pandemic.

First, there are President Trump’s own tweets — coming before Thursday’s interview — where he questioned the utility of the deal that he had been crowing about just months earlier:

Trade talks earlier in the week were hardly reassuring, if you compare the readouts from Washington versus Beijing.

The USTR readout stated:

Both sides agreed that good progress is being made on creating the governmental infrastructures necessary to make the agreement a success. They also agreed that in spite of the current global health emergency, both countries fully expect to meet their obligations under the agreement in a timely manner. Meetings required by the agreement have been conducted via conference call and will continue on a regular basis.

On the other hand, Beijing’s readout, via the Xinhua wire, stated:

The two sides agreed that they should enhance macroeconomic and public health cooperation, create a favorable atmosphere and conditions for the implementation of the China-U.S. phase-one trade deal, and strive for positive outcomes. They also agreed to maintain communication and coordination. [emphasis added]

China’s defensiveness about the Covid outbreak is already clear. When President Trump openly doubts the deal and calls the coronavirus “the plague from China,” one can hardly imagine “a favorable atmosphere.”

Rather than blaming President Trump for the collapse of the trade deal, it is worth questioning its utility in the first place. Rather than any significant shift in the U.S.-China relationship, it simply put a floor on further deterioration of the trading relationship before the election — while also allowing President Trump to claim victory for his key rural farm voters, while trumpeting the success of tariffs — which continue to be paid by the American people.

Meanwhile, China continued to push forward in advanced technologies — driving wedges between the United States and its key allies — while Secretary General Xi continues to consolidate power at home and push forward his global ambitions. Before the outbreak, for all of his tough trade rhetoric, President Trump’s transactional approach was seen as preferable to other alternatives.

With the split between the United States and China looking more and more likely — and driven by hawks on both sides of the Pacific — it is worth remembering the interdependence between our countries and the fact that cooperation is still needed in areas of global importance. Both sides can be blamed for the deterioration in the relationship, but in many ways, this growing confrontation has been hastened by the pandemic. President Trump will no longer feel the need to protect his trade deal heading into the election, as confrontation, rather than dealmaking, will be the China debate. Entering into an era of heightened competition will require a strategic approach that harnesses all the tools of national power — be it diplomatic, cultural, military, or economic might. LIke the virus itself, the question is no longer whether such a competition can be avoided, but rather, who do we think will best position the United States for what it needs to succeed?


A Shocking Assault, A Defection, and a Government Treading Water

Joshua Huminski

The second week of May brought with it continued instability in Afghanistan and perhaps a new level of atrocity. On 12 May, three militants wearing police uniforms stormed a Doctors Without Borders hospital in Kabul killing 16 people including two newborns and mothers who had recently given birth. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the assault on the hospital. The Taliban denied responsibility, but the government in Kabul blamed the group.

To the east in Nangarhar, around the same time, a suicide bomber struck a funeral for a local police commander, killing at least 28 people and wounding 68 others. An affiliate of the Islamic State in Afghanistan claimed responsibility for the bombing.

The attacks are the latest in an escalating campaign of violence within Afghanistan, which followed hopes (perhaps naïve) that the conflict would begin to ebb with the signing of the peace accord between the United States and the Taliban. Hamdullah Mohib, Afghanistan’s national security adviser tweeted, “This is not peace, nor its beginnings” adding, “little point in continuing to engage Taliban in ‘peace talks.’”

President Ashraf Ghani ordered the Afghan National Security Forces to end the “active defense” posture and resume offensive operations against the Taliban in response to the escalating violence. Following the attack, Ghani said “the Taliban, with the stoking of foreigners, have intensified the war and are shedding Afghan blood.” He continued, “Don’t see our invitation for peace and a cease-fire as our weakness, but as deep respect to the demand and will of the people.”

In response to President Ghani’s calls for increased offensive operations, Zabiullah Mujahid, a spokesperson for the Taliban, said “The Kabul regime will be responsible for an increase in the violence,” accusing the government of “creating hurdles in the peace process.”

The peace deal is, ostensibly, stuck on the issue of prisoner transfers between the Taliban and the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. Negotiations over the handover were due to begin two months ago, but formal discussions between the two have yet to start.

While the agreement did not expressly state that the Taliban would reduce attacks against the government, but it was, according to the United States Forces-Afghanistan (USFOR-A), verbally agreed that violence would be reduced by 80%. Not surprisingly, the Taliban blamed the government for the increase in violence, citing the delayed talks as a proximate cause.

The likelihood that the levels of violence will decrease is slim. The Taliban clearly see the government’s position as weakened and recent defections from the establishment can only be emboldening their sense of momentum. General Abdul Jalil Bakhtawar, a former police chief in Farah province, recently defected to the Taliban. In a video released by the Taliban, the former general is heard saying “It would be great if an Islamic government is put in place — it can end the bloodshed.”

The reason behind the defection is unclear. Some politicians in Farah say the Taliban had been steadily increasing pressure against the general and that the government failed to support or protect him. His oldest son was killed in a helicopter crash. The Taliban refused to return his son’s body, later settling for cash payment in exchange. Another son is the current deputy governor of Farah. The general ran for parliament in 2018, but lost in what was seen as a deeply fraudulent vote count.

In a country beset by tragedy and violence, while the maternity ward is shocking, it shouldn’t be seen as a turning point. This is not Iraq circa 2005 and it is extremely unlikely that an indigenous movement like the Sahwah or Awakening will develop. For all of the outrage and shock, justified though it may be, there is little appetite for any escalation. The United States is keen to withdraw and be done with the country, aside from ensuring that it does not become a launching pad for future terror attacks. The government in Kabul is treading water at best and slowly sinking at worst.


Plugging in the Warfighter

Ethan Brown

The U.S. Special Operations Command recently wrapped up a two-year long study into a variety of performance enhancing initiatives for its personnel corps. The aim of the ‘Hyper Enabled Operator’ concept is to provide advanced cognitive capacity to the “Small unit, individual operator, operating in a remote, austere environment” said James Smith, acquisitions executive for SOCOM. The advanced capacity means getting advanced analytics, emerging sensor capabilities (like facial recognition software) and DoD IOT access to those operators on the liminal and front lines of a conflict.

It may seem outrageous to think, but Moore’s law hasn’t exactly applied to military technology across the force, thus the operators at the pointiest end of the spear haven’t always had the cutting edge tech to support them on target; in most cases the tech on the battlefield remains entire generations behind the capacity we enjoy on our smartphones. Lisa Sanders, SOCOMs Science and Technology Director, said the Hyper-Enabled Operator concept strives to provide that level of connectivity and data analytics to the SOCOM members End User Devices (EUD), complete with a secured/classified connectivity.

Combat is just a race

Split seconds matter in a gunfight. The participants in an exchange of bullets may only have the blink of an eye to get inside their opponent’s OODA Loop. Oftentimes those outcomes are further subjected to a myriad of uncontrollable factors involving Murphy and his omnipotent, inconvenient law. Across all domains of combat, these small microcosmic moments decide the outcome of an ambush, or an entire mission, and even entire campaigns throughout the course of warfare’s history.

Equipping the warfighter with the ability to make the split-second decision correctly hinges on having accurate, relevant and timely information ahead of these moments of truth. The more streamlined and comprehensive the information, the higher probability of success for the member trying to get inside an adversary’s OODA Loop. Our service members are no longer frolicking with poorly equipped extremists, but preparing to go toe to toe with peer-state militaries. Shortening the decision timeline is crucial.

The aim of applying lethal (authorized) military force is to reduce an adversary’s willpower to continue to fight, and bring about an end to the conflict. So, the objective of both the gunfight and the strategic campaign are essentially the same- get there first and don’t miss. Commanders at higher echelons of conflict are in the business of making strategic and operational level decisions while lower echelon tactical leaders and individuals are charged with the execution based on that guidance. Those commanders make decisions based on information available through reporting, intelligence, historical analysis, available capabilities and environmental factors that influence whether or not to execute.

In the world of special operations forces (SOF), those decisions are often (read: typically) delegated to considerably lower levels of command when compared to the vast majority of the military. This applies to both the U.S., its allies, and adversaries, we should not be so strategically naïve to think that our competition for international order isn’t desperately seeking every competitive advantage. The specialized missions are often of a sensitive nature and can have profound impact across the theater of operations.

So more relevant, accurate and comprehensive battlefield information is important, especially for those specialized entities operating further from the logistical and support infrastructure of warm bases. A little tongue in cheek, but particularly applicable in this context compared to most comparisons.

The competition

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the Russian Military and Clandestine intelligence service have all dipped their hands into human performance enhancement in the GPC-prelude years of the last decade. These include gene-editing by Chinese research firms (after having purchased commercial western CRISPR-cas9 testing systems and suspected of applying to “nefarious ends”) under a complex umbrella of research institutions- both the allegedly private and those with open ties to the PLA.

Meanwhile, Russia has been making every effort to develop and implement an exoskeleton capability- improving strength, endurance, and survivability for its troops in austere climes. While skeptics may turn up their nose at a sci-fi reference, the reality is experimental or theoretical capabilities like an Iron Man suit may not be too far off in the future of battlegrounds.

The more outlandish ideas of human performance enhancement include ‘wetware’ fusion, in essence, fusing computer drives with human brains through experimental interfaces for two-way transfer. Drugs, both the amphetamine and performance enhancing variety, have littered this future soldier competition at various stages of this defense phenomena.

The U.S. initiative- ‘Hyper Enabled Operators’ to ‘Cyborgs’

Early on in my training pipeline, my teammates and I were told by a particularly ‘salty’ cadre during academics on the Military Decision-Making Process:

“any ‘eleven bravo (U.S. Army Military Occupational Specialty Code for infantryman) can be told to point his weapon at, and shoot, a target. As special operators, the DoD isn’t paying you to take ‘a’ shot. You are getting paid to decide in that split second whether or not you should take the shot, and you’d better be right”.

This is the nature of the Special Operations Forces (SOF) enterprise- minute tactical decisions made in a split second based on often-times limited data. It places a premium on the cognitive skills and perception of the individual, as well as collective teams, to process data rapidly. Physical performance is not the only metric by which these elite military members are assessed and expected to excel in.

Rather than dancing between the fine lines of fiction and reality, the DoD and its SOCOM sub-component have opted for a more feasible first step in the human enhancement, the aforementioned Hyper-Enhanced Operator. As referenced earlier in this space, this means operators on the front lines and in liminal, austere locations will have the ability to access classified, advanced databases and sensors supporting the warfighting functions across the domains. Simply, improved situational awareness, more timely data (streamlined and collated through AI fusion), and multi-domain visibility of the enemy means a reduced OODA loop for the member.

When fused with a cybernetic external system, like the TALOS suit and its future derivatives, the U.S. warfighters charged with our most sensitive missions will be afforded enhanced survivability through improved lightweight armor (capable of absorbing AK-47 rounds) while plugging those operators into future command networks…like the Joint All Domain Command & Control system (JADC2) covered previously in this roundup.

TALOS and the Hyper-Enhanced Operator concept are just a baby step in the journey of augmented human performance for the DoD. The concepts of exoskeletons have become a major innovation effort and the U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Command see’s cyborg and exoskeleton integration as a major facet of the American warfighter in the coming decades. Intended to further augment American soldiers will be integrated audio and visual splicing, along with potential AI interface with individual operators, all aimed at quickening decision making.

Science Fiction or Strategic Foresight?

It just so happens that Iron Man 2 was released ten years ago, and in it, the film’s protagonist Tony Stark testifies to a fictional Senate Armed Services Committee that the exoskeleton warfighting technology that is the Iron Man suit remains “10 to 20 years down the road”. Ten actual years into the future, here we are exploring combat exoskeleton technology.

The views are of the author, and do not reflect the views, position, or policy of the U.S. Air Force or Department of Defense.


News You May Have Missed

U.S. Citizen Detained in Venezuela Speaks On State TV

Aida Olivas

Two U.S. citizens have been alleged to be part of an attempt to a “failed coup” by the Venezuelan government. Both men are former U.S. special forces soldiers currently working for a U.S. security firm. They have been detained and an edited “confession” of one of the veterans was broadcasted on Venezuelan state television. Venezuelan president Maduro has stated they will stand trial in civilian court for their participation in the alleged coup and are now currently in the charge of the Attorney General’s office. Maduro also stated the U.S. security firm’s CEO was the mastermind behind operation and that “his Foreign Ministry would denounce the alleged invasion at the International Criminal Court in the Hague and request [the CEO’s] extradition from the US”. Maduro has also accused other leaders of being complying with the coup including Donald Trump, Columbian president Ivan Duque, and Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido, which they have denied.

Appeals Court Greenlights Emoluments Suit Against Trump

Aida Olivas

The decision on a lawsuit against Trump was presented on May 14 by the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals with a vote of 9–6 against Trump. The case was brought forth by the governments of Maryland and the District of Columbia on allegations that the acceptance of foreign government money through his hotel in Washington violated the Constitutions emoluments clauses. With the case decided against him, Trump team of lawyers have declared they will seek relief from the Supreme Court in order to block Maryland and D.C. from demanding and viewing his business records. The decision by the 4th Circuit was split along ideological lines and contained strong and impassioned arguments by the judges in the opinion and dissent.

U.S. Officials Worry About Dual Citizens Returning to the United States if Mexico’s Pandemic Worsens

Aida Olivas

Hospitals in the border city of Tijuana, Mexico have been overwhelmed with patients and the San Diego healthcare system has expressed concerns of people crossing the border without going through medical checks and orders to remain in quarantine if there is suspicion they might have Coronavirus. “Representatives of two hospital systems in the San Diego area…sent a letter to top Trump administration officials in late April” requesting health checks be put in place at the border. It was specified that they were not asking, nor wanting, the border to be closed as that would only hurt the economies and U.S.-Mexico relations, but some U.S. government officials have expressed concern about dual citizens living in Mexico who might travel to the United States if conditions in the southern country worsen.

French Cheesemakers Warn of Rotting Surplus

Disruptions in global supply chains and declines in restaurant meals caused by the COVID-19 outbreak have left France with a surplus of 5,000 tons of delicious cheese. The European Union is already paying French producers to store 18,000 tons of delicious cheese, to prevent them from driving down prices across the continent, but soft, delicious cheese cannot be stored for as long. Sales of delicious French cheeses are down 60 percent from last year and Michel Lacoste, president of the National Council of Appellations of Dairy Origin, told reporters, “Today it’s the France of 1,000 cheeses that is being threatened.”

Merlot and Order: Man Arrested for Freeway Wine Heist

A man in California’s Central Valley lured the driver of a tanker truck carrying bulk red wine to the side of the road and then waved him away. Moments later, the truck’s dashboard camera caught the man, stripped down to his underwear, leaping onto the back of the truck. He climbed under the tank and opened a valve, drinking from the resulting stream. Around 1,000 gallons of wine spilled out onto the freeway while he quaffed. His vintage plan went sour, however, because he was unable to decant and escape. Obviously, he needed a partner in wine. The driver noticed that he was losing fluid from the tank and called Highway Patrol, who discovered the man still holding on, still in his underwear, but presumably with a good buzz on. We can all agree that it was a “sip-erb” idea with poor execution. (The editors of the Roundup would like to apologize for that last pun. We’ll do better in the future. We promise.)


Upcoming CSPC Events

Book Event: General Martin Dempsey — No Time for Spectators: The Lessons That Mattered Most from West Point to the West Wing

Thursday, May 21, 2020 | 11:00 AM — 12:00 PM ET

Please click here to register.

Book Event: Thomas Rid — Active Measures: The Secret History of Disinformation & Political Warfare

Friday, May 22, 2020 | 10:30 AM — 11:30 AM ET

Please click here to register.

Book Event: Max Brooks — Stranger than Fiction: Security, Survival & Covid

Tuesday, May 26, 2020 | 10:30 AM — 11:30 AM ET

Please click here to register.

Book Event: August Cole — Burn-In: A Novel of the Real Robotic Revolution

Friday, May 29, 2020 | 10:00 AM — 11:00 AM ET

Please click here to register.

Book Event: Dr. Jung Pak — Becoming Kim Jong Un: A Former CIA Officer’s Insights into North Korea’s Enigmatic Young Dictator

Monday, June 1, 2020 | 10:30 AM — 11:30 AM ET

Please click here to register.

Webinar: Dr. Mark Galeotti — How Putin’s Russia Understands War — and its struggle with the West

Thursday, June 4, 2020 | 10:30 AM — 11:30 AM ET

Please click here to register.


The views of authors are their own and not that of CSPC.

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